Science just published an article on a possible explanation for why the climate is warming at a slower rate than expected. You can read a nice summary from the Economist here.
The amount of water in the stratosphere has been decreasing (albeit by about only one part per million) which affects the amount of infrared radiation absorbed and emitted back down into the troposphere. This could be slowing the rate of Earth’s warming by up to 25%.
Courtesy of Fred
This could be a good thing, but we can’t really know because we don’t know why less water vapor is entering the stratosphere. It could (surprise, surprise) be due to rising greenhouse gas levels. What we can be sure of is that the climate is fickle. A seemingly straightforward process or causal connection can be disrupted once a ‘tipping point’ is reached. That’s what is so troubling about emitting high levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere… while it may not continue to cause ‘warming’ everywhere, it will certainly impact climate stability. Uncertainty is the biggest threat.
